Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Fed rate cut a DUD! Fed rescues go WILD!

Fed rate cut a DUD! Fed rescues go WILD! by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

While all eyes were focused today on the Fed's rate cut, the big news was the Fed's latest cockamamie effort to save world.
Indeed, just when you thought the insanity couldn't get crazier, the Fed announced it's now going to funnel a massive $120 billion of U.S. funds into Brazil, South Korea, Singapore, and Mexico.
And that's on top of the IMF bailouts already committed to the Ukraine ($16.5 billion), Iceland ($2.1 billion), and Hungary ($25.5 billion)!
In response, some folks are cheering with glee, blindly believing that Mr. Bernanke can play Santa Claus, the Pied Piper and the Fairy Godmother all in one act.
But anyone with any experience with the real world is quickly coming to the realization that Mr. Bernanke is
Desperate — resorting to the most radical measures of all time.
Playing his last cards — realizing that if these last-ditch rescues don't work, it's game over.
Taking huge risks — that his rescue-the-whole-world schemes will backfire in the form of falling confidence in the U.S. government as a whole!
Meanwhile, the much ballyhooed Fed rate cut was a dud!
After all the hope and prayer implied in yesterday's stock-market surge, today, the market literally saw a ghost: Just in the final 12 minutes of trading — from today's post-rate-cut high to the closing bell — the Dow nosedived by an alarming 372 points!
Not exactly a polite "thank you" note to Mr. Bernanke for his half-point rate cut!
Bottom line: Some investors can be fooled some of the time. But the investors that move the market are painfully aware of one simple fact:
Mr. Bernanke cannot drop interest rates below zero!
He cannot force banks to lend money!
He can't compel consumers to borrow, or make people spend.
Nor can he turn back the clock to undo decades of financial sins ... or repeal the law of gravity and stop investors from selling.
Indeed, all of this week's wild events merely underscore the wisdom of Mike Larson's strategy:
To watch the bulls drive up the price of stocks until he can see the white's of their eyes ... and then to fire with all guns with his recommendations that help you profit massively when stocks plunge. All strictly with inverse ETFs!
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
P.S. For a quick heads up on what kind of investment Mike intends to recommend and when, click here.
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.





notary public fremont ca
notary public fremont ca. ... Rob Schmidt's Fremont Notary Service. and Notary Directory. View Notary Rotary Profile 408-810-5626 View Notary Rotary Profile ...fremont-notary.com/notary_public_fremont_ca.htmthis
notary public fremont
Rob Schmidt's Fremont Notary Service. and Notary Directory ... A notary public is a reputable witness, commissioned by California’s Secretary of State, ...fremont-notary.com/notary_public_fremont.htm
notary services in fremont
Fremont, CA Notaries Public Services. Find Notaries Public Services in Fremont, CA. Rob Schmidt's Fremont Notary Service Home.fremont-notary.com/notary_services_in_fremont.htm
notary in newark
A notary public is a reputable witness, commissioned by California’s Secretary of State, who may legally certify .... Rob Schmidt's Fremont Notary Service Home .fremont-notary.com/notary_in_newark.htm -
Notaries in Fremont
Notaries in Fremont. ... A notary public is a reputable witness, commissioned by California’s Secretary of State .... Rob Schmidt's Fremont Notary Service Home.fremont-notary.com/notaries_in_fremont.htm

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Chinese Perspective: What Global Recession?

The Chinese Perspective: What Global Recession? by Tony Sagami
You've probably never heard of the Canton Fair, but it is the largest trade fair in the world, where thousands of manufacturers, businessmen, and merchants gather to conduct business.
The Canton Fair is co-hosted by the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China and the People's Government of Guangdong Province, and organized by the China Foreign Trade Centre.
Also known as the China Import & Export Fair, the Canton Fair has been held in the spring and fall since 1957 and has the largest assortment of products, the highest attendance, and the largest number of business deals made at any trade show on the planet.
22,000 exhibitors and 200,000 buyers from more than 200 countries gather in Guangzhou (formerly known as Canton) to find everything from industrial products, textiles and garments, medicines and health products, gifts, and consumer goods.
At the most recent fair, a total of $38.2 billion worth of goods were ordered, accounting for a whopping 25% of China's entire annual export total. The Canton Fair is simply the single most important business event of the year.
External Sponsorship
Boom or Bust Ahead for U.S. Investors?
Why the shocking answer could make you 50% richer in the next days or send you to the poorhouse! Discover the four big surprises that will hit the U.S. economy & affect everything you own. Get your FREE copy.
Your free report reveals China's shocking plan that will rock Wall Street — download your copy now!
Click here for more information ...

Hey! Somebody needs to tell the businessmen at the Canton Fair that the world is falling into a deep global recession because the businessmen in attendance are too busy making money to listen to what the "experts" from Wall Street and CNBC keep telling us.
Exports Fuel China's Unstoppable Economy
Get this: The number of exhibitors at the Canton Fair hit 53,000, 10% more than just six months ago.
The reason is simple — the export business is still booming. According to the Ministry of Commerce, China's exports rose 22.3% to $1.07 trillion during the first three quarters of this year. In September alone, exports rose by 21.5% a year earlier and China boasted a trade surplus of $29.3 billion.
At the most recent Canton Fair, $38.2 billion worth of goods were ordered — a whopping 25% of China's entire annual export total!
"Export figures do not seem to be very discouraging now," confirms Zhang Yansheng, director of the International Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission.
"China's economic fundamentals are still strong, so are exports," Yao Shenhong, a Ministry of Commerce spokesman concurs.
Example: Haier Group, the largest appliance manufacturer in China, reported a 10% increase in foreign sales in the first nine months of the year.
Of course, the good fortune isn't universal. What is happening is that Chinese exports to the U.S. and Europe are rapidly slowing, but exports to its Asian neighbors, Russia, Latin American, Africa, and the Middle East are skyrocketing.
It may sound ironic, but exports to developed countries are plummeting but exports to emerging markets are soaring.
The reason for the dichotomy is simple: Developed countries are sitting on billions of quasi-worthless mortgage bonds, while emerging market countries never had enough money to invest in the toxic bonds our Wall Street alchemists created, packed, and peddled.
China, for example, has a closed financial system that severely limited how many Chinese companies, banks, and governmental agencies are allowed to invest in foreign securities. China simply doesn't own a meaningful amount of our crappy mortgage bonds.
Even Chinese consumers are in solid shape. The total household debt as a percentage of GDP in the U.S. is more than 100%, but is only a meager 13% in China.
The result is that for the first time that I can remember in my 30-year investment career, the risk of investing in the developed countries is higher than investing in emerging markets.
Don't Just Sit There, Get Busy
China's good fortune in the midst of economic crisis in the U.S. may not make market conditions in the West more palpable, but it does offer a ray of hope. Here's what you should do:
Step 1: Use rallies to reduce your U.S. holdings. The market has been very volatile, but volatility can be your friend if you use big dips as buying opportunities and big rallies as selling opportunities. That is exactly what I did last Monday when the Dow Jones soared by 936 points and I trimmed my U.S. holdings.
Make the most of market volatility by buying on big dips and selling on big rallies.
Step 2: Dump the station wagon for a Ferrari. Given the choice of hitching your investment wagon to a slow jalopy headed for the junk yard or a 200-mph high-performance sports car ... I'll take the faster ride every time. I suggest the same for your portfolio and recommend that you overweigh your portfolio with stocks, funds, and/or ETFs from Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East.
Step 3: Buy yourself some "haywire" insurance. I've been saying this for a long time, but I'll say it again: I expect the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market to get ugly. If things do get ugly, the best haywire insurance you can buy is gold, gold stocks, or gold funds.
Lastly, the one thing that you should NOT do is do nothing. Don't let the volatility turn you into a deer-in-the-headlights investor who is too frightened to do anything. Doing nothing has been a very costly strategy in the last month and I expect the cost of inaction to go even higher.
Best wishes,
Tony
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Another Reason to Like Gold

Another Reason to Like Gold by Larry Edelson

The credit collapse is not entirely over. Nor is its impact on Main Street.
And as we saw yesterday, there will be more sell-offs, sharp ones that scare the dickens out of nearly everyone.
That's why I suggest sticking mainly with natural resource-based companies that operate businesses which deal in assets that have intrinsic value — and that will be the main recipients of the next wave of what I call the "Great Re-inflation."
At the top of that list is my all-time favorite: Gold.
You know I'm a gold bug. And given everything that's happening in the world today, I'm more of a gold bug than ever before.
How can you NOT be in gold?
There are dozens of reasons I believe everyone must own some gold. But lately, there's another one that's rising to the surface ...
China Is Soon Going to Make Some Big Buys In the Gold Market
Just yesterday, China's central bank announced that its foreign-exchange reserves rose to a record $1.905 trillion.
If China were to lay this nearly $2 trillion in surplus reserves end-to-end using dollar bills, the trail would stretch for 193,813,130 miles. That's enough to wrap around the widest part of the earth 7,752 times!
Clearly, Beijing's piggy bank is overflowing with money. In fact, at nearly $2 trillion, China has the largest foreign reserves of any country in the history of the planet.
Compare it to Washington, which now has nearly $11.4 trillion in debts, not counting the contingent liabilities of the real estate crisis, Social Security or Medicare.
Whose paper currency do you think should have more purchasing power? Naturally, the yuan. Yet that's not the case — the dollar remains stronger.
But not for long.
I warned of this a couple of years ago, but now the signs are even clearer: Over the next few years China is essentially going to corner the world's gold market.
It's one of the chief reasons I am now even more bullish on gold, expecting the price of the precious yellow metal to eventually exceed $2,000 an ounce.
Mind you, Beijing won't intentionally set out to corner the gold market. But, in effect, that will be the end result.
Take it from me. I've met with central bankers, regulators, and gold traders in China and Asia. I know Beijing's views on the yuan and gold.
You see, Beijing knows that the dollar's status as a reserve currency is soon going to be history. Just like the pound sterling lost its status as the world's reserve currency in the early 20th century.
And authorities in Beijing also believe that as China rapidly progresses toward superpower economic status, the yuan should be a world-class, stable medium of exchange.
They envision the yuan as a major international currency some day, with as much (or more) status than the U.S. dollar. That's why they're going to back the yuan with gold ... loads of it.
External Sponsorship
How To Pick Winning Stocks ... With Just 1 Click!New Software Offers "One-Click Stock Picks"
• Real-Time Quotes & Charts INCLUDED • Scans the Whole Market for Growth & Momentum• Free 10 Page Strategy Guide• Tested by thousands of traders world-wide
"One-Click Stock Picks" — Take a Look Today!
http://www.Stock-Picker-RT.com

Plus, there's another reason for Beijing to buy more gold as part of China's piggy bank. China has an estimated $1.3 trillion invested in dollar-denominated investments. They can't get out of the dollar quickly. It would destroy the U.S. economy which would have a direct negative impact on China.
So the smart thing to do: Hedge and diversify existing dollar holdings with gold.
Consider this: Right now, China has a mere 0.9% of its reserves in gold (600 tons). That's the lowest of any industrialized economy! To put it into perspective ...
The U.S. has 77.3% of its foreign reserves in gold.
The European Union has 23% of its reserves in gold.
Lithuania, Mozambique, and even tiny Nepal all have more of their reserves in gold than China.
Just to up its reserves to 5% in gold, Beijing would have to purchase $93 billion worth of bullion. That could easily send the yellow metal skyrocketing to more than $2,000 an ounce.
And if China were to match roughly half of the gold reserves held by the United States, it would have to buy another $636 billion worth. That kind of buying would send gold to well more than $2,000 an ounce. Probably to $3,000, or even higher.
My view: China has already started purchasing small amounts of gold. It's one of the reasons gold is now holding support at its 1980 high in the mid-$800 level, well above important support levels on the charts from $600 up to $735 an ounce.
This is yet another reason I recommended you substantially increase your gold holdings back in mid-September.
I believe gold is still one of the best bets out there, loaded with huge profit opportunities. No matter what aspect of the market I examine, I see much, much higher prices to come for the precious yellow metal.
Best,
Larry
P.S. Make sure you're on board with all my gold recommendations, which can be found in my Real Wealth Report. The October issue is going to press tomorrow. You can get that issue, and become a Real Wealth Report member for a mere $99.
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

doctor quick weight lossquick start weight lossloss made quick weightquick weight loss pillquick weight loss center atlantacenter georgia loss quick weightbest exercise for quick weight losshealthy loss nutrisystem quick weightquick weight loss systemcybergenics quick weight loss dietfasting for quick weight lossbook diet loss quick weightdvd loss quick start weight yogaquick weight loss center in atlantaquick weight loss trickfree weight loss tipdieting loss product tip weight100 weight loss tipeasy weight loss tipHome Sitemap

Monday, October 13, 2008

Currencies and Cotton Candy Rate Cuts

Currencies and Cotton Candy Rate Cuts by Jack Crooks

I understand that the lending system is in bad shape. Or more specifically, that it's barely functioning at all. We're well past the point when central banks and governments around the globe inexplicitly declared it their duty to save their economies. But they really unleashed their helping hands this week.
That's especially true of the coordinated rate cuts from many of the world's Central Banks — everyone from the U.S. and Europe to China.
These moves have serious implications for all financial markets, but especially the currency markets. And today I want to tell you what I think is coming next.
Governments Make Bold Moves; Markets Shrug ...
Stocks started the week with a horrendous Monday that basically stated, "Bailout package? So what?"
Monday was followed by an equally bad Tuesday.
So the Federal Reserve, and every other central bank you may have ever heard of, did what many had been hoping they would do. They cut their benchmark interest rates.
Ben Bernanke and the Fed cut rates this past week, along with just about every other Central Bank under the sun.
But the markets continued falling. In short, Wednesday simply deflated any hopes of recovery to which a very small minority might have still been clinging.
Throughout recent weeks, Chairman Bernanke has guided billions of dollars of credit into money markets, supported the Treasury's $700-billion bailout plan, and taken steps to make accessing loans easier.
But until Wednesday, the Fed hadn't caved in to the newest pressures rocking the markets with official interest rate cuts. And surely to their disappointment, it's done little to better the current investment environment.
I Didn't Think the Federal Reserve Needed to Cut; Here's Why ...
Even though the Fed Funds target had been stable at around 2%, the market-determined rate was already far lower.
Plus, as I mentioned, the Fed had already created and used so many other methods of pumping liquidity into the system.
Internal Sponsorship
Emergency Crisis SurvivalConference Online NOW!
We answered your most crucial questions about how to get through this great crisis with your money 100% intact.
We delivered our best recommendations to help you protect ...your income and financial security ... your savings, checking, brokerage accounts and money market funds ... your life insurance and annuities ... your retirement and your kids' and grandkids' college funds ... every kind of money you have.
Click here for more information ...

But the Fed did what it did, knocking another 50 basis points off an already measly 2% Fed Funds rate. But the Fed was only one guest at a rather big party that took place in the middle of the week:
The European Central Bank finally budged and knocked 50 basis points off its benchmark rate.
The Bank of England followed suit with 50 basis points.
The Swedish Riksbank cut by 50 basis points.
The Bank of Canada cut by 50 basis points.
The Swiss National Bank got in on the action by 50 basis points as well.
The Bank of China knocked rates down by 27 basis points.
The Bank of Japan offered their support, but made no change to rates.
Also note that a day before all these actions, the Reserve Bank of Australia sliced off 100 basis points. And a day after the rate cut party, central banks in Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong also joined in with rate cuts of their own.
When I say party, I mean it. Only investors never got the invitation to come share in the finger foods and free booze.
But at least the central banks were kind enough to toss some more easy money their way. After all ...
When Everyone's Already Heavily Indebted, What's Left to Do but Make Debt Cheaper for Them?
Here's the argument that central bankers and government officials make during crises like this:
Individuals, companies and banks are having trouble accessing credit.
This inability to secure credit is wreaking havoc on the growth of the economy.
By cutting interest rates, credit is made cheaper and encourages borrowing that will in turn stabilize growth.
Well, in reality, it's not quite that easy or obvious. The government's solution is a lot like a marathon runner fueling his body with cotton candy ...
The runner may get quite a burst of energy from the cotton candy at first, but, sooner or later, his sugar high is going to peak and subsequently collapse.
Internal Sponsorship
IS A FINANCIAL CRASH DEAD AHEAD? HURRY TO GET YOUR GOLDEN PARACHUTE FOR 2009
5 Forces Poised to Send Gold Soaring to $1,110 ... $1,500 ... and beyond
Best Ways to Buy Bullion ... and NOT Get Ripped Off!
Why Select Mining Shares Are on the Launch Pad
Why There's Even More Potential Sizzle in Silver!
Three days left to save $100. Get Your Golden Parachute for 2009.
Click here for more information ...

And in an effort to keep from losing his sugar high completely, the runner just takes in more and more cotton candy. The problem is the cotton candy intake becomes increasingly less effective ... to the point of becoming unhealthy.
A sugar high can only last so long before it becomes a massive crash!
How could allowing cheaper access to credit, at a time when it's "completely necessary" for the economy to function, become unhealthy for the economy?
My answer is that it's not completely necessary.
The problem, as many have already mentioned, is a lack of confidence in the lending system. To a much smaller extent is the problem actually due to a lack of credit.
Easy access to credit — unnecessarily low interest rates and a "loans-for-everyone" mentality among banks — is what created the bursting bubble we're dealing with right now.
Cheap money and easy access to loans have bred projects of low value and low profitability. If money was more difficult and costly to secure, these investments would have never happened in the first place.
Artificially low rates attract any ol' Joe Schmoe who's got a business idea — no matter if it's building birdhouses out of popsicle sticks or selling cell phones to scuba divers.
Market determined interest rates, however, naturally weed out the birth of wasteful and absurd projects. This kind of growth is far healthier and more sustainable.
Surprisingly (and fortunately!) quite a few parties are learning lessons from excessive intake of credit. They're not feeling so good anymore. And so they're not willing to swallow any more cotton candy credit, no matter how cheap and how easily accessible it becomes.
What needs to happen is a period of cleansing and consolidation. Particularly with the banks.
Everyone needs to know which banks are solvent and which ones are being held together with paper clips and chewing gum.
The collapsing banks will need to liquidate. The solvent banks will be able to buy up assets on the cheap and solidify their own business. The result is a healthier entity that's ready to run again.
The cotton candy credit being dished out is going to keep everything running a little while longer, sure. But that's only going to delay the inevitable collapse of troubled institutions. And it will fail to restore confidence that some banks, who will actually escape this mess, will be willing to lend and borrow between one another at healthy, responsible rates.
In the end, of course, central banks make these decisions, not me. So ...
What Do the Rate Cuts Mean for Currency Investors?
Like the $700-billion dollar bailout, these rate cuts aren't going to have an immediate effect on the lending system or on confidence in the market. Let's just keep our fingers crossed that they have a positive effect at all ... ever.
To the specific point I've mentioned plenty of times in the last couple months ... the Federal Reserve is ahead of the curve on interest rates. It seems likely to me that they have less distance to travel on the downside with policy rates.
Major central banks around the world, on the other hand, have quite a bit of room to play with. The potential for rates to drop a lot further in European and Antipodean countries will sustain the exchange-rate rebalance that's currently working to the advantage of the greenback.
The ECB just got started on this rate cut business ...
The BOE just resumed a much needed easing trend ...
The RBA has gotten the rate cut momentum moving quickly ...
And the RBNZ has set a comfortable pace for cutting rates that is far from coming to an end.
So if you're seeing Fed rate cuts and automatically thinking the U.S. dollar will fall, you might want to get your brain off cruise control!
There are too many other factors that are going to keep the rates vs. currency trend in the U.S. turned upside down.
Am I saying that the U.S. dollar is officially out of its bear market? No. But things have turned up for the buck, even though it's counterintuitive.
As I see it, now's the time for the rest of the major currencies to feel the pain. And it's time for the buck to lead the way out of this mess that's engulfed the world's financial system.
Best wishes,
Jack
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Christina Kern, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

notary in fremont notary fremont california fremont ca notary notary in fremont ca notary in newark notary newark ca nnotarized mortgage documentsotary public fremont notary public fremont ca notary public in fremont notary public in newark notary public newark notary public union city notary service fremont notary service fremont ca notary service in fremont notary service in fremont ca notary services fremont notary services fremont ca notary services in fremont notary union city ca Notaries in Fremont


Optimists: House prices expected to fall until 2009 (articles.moneycentral.msn.com)Paulson Credit Push Earns Jeers From Free-Marketers (bloomberg.com)Disaster capitalism, the new Manifest Destiny (eyeonmiami.blogspot.com)SIV Bailout Plan: Don't Ask, Don't Sell (seekingalpha.com)Text of Paulson's Remarks on Housing (blogs.wsj.com)As Defaults Rise, Washington Worries (nytimes.com)Mortgage Securities Bailout Fund: A Bribe? (seekingalpha.com)Banks May Pool Billions to Avert Securities Sell-Off (nytimes.com)Boom Boom Tuesday (market-ticker.denninger.net)Wells Fargo, Regions Financial, KeyCorp Profits Miss (bloomberg.com)Wells Fargo Hit by Mortgage Woes (thestreet.com)Foreigners Sold Record $69.3 Billion in U.S. Assets (bloomberg.com)German bank hit by subprime crisis slashes results, directors leave (afp.google.com)Builder D.R. Horton Orders Fall (cnbc.com)D.R. Horton Orders Fall to Lowest in Almost Six Years (bloomberg.com)Housebuilder Outlook Falls to Record Low (biz.yahoo.com)8 Areas in the U.S. Most Unaffordable in World (efinancedirectory.com)Blame the Downturn on Homebuilders and Banks (doctorhousingbubble.com)Southern California house sales plunge 30 pct in Sept (reuters.com)2005 San Diegeo Sales (sandicor.com)2007 San Diego Sales (sandicor.com)
Bloomberg.com
market-ticker.denninger.net
eyeonmiami.blogspot.com
conotary.com

Why Financial Collapses Are Unavoidable

Why Financial Collapses Are UnavoidableAnd Government Actions May Be Backfiring
Open Letter to Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director of The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
From Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D., Chairman, Sound Dollar Committee
Dear IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn: This past Saturday, October 11, at a joint press conference by world economic leaders, you said:
"Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest U.S.-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown."
Further, in an attempt to prevent that potentially traumatic outcome, some of the world's largest nations have proposed a series of new steps, including massive direct injections of taxpayer capital into private-sector banks.
This brings us to a crossroads that can determine the fate of six billion people for decades to come, a dire reality that motivates me to write you today.
I am president of Weiss Research, Inc., an independent research corporation, and Chairman of the Sound Dollar Committee, a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization founded by my father in 1959.
The Sound Dollar Committee was instrumental in helping President Dwight D. Eisenhower achieve one of the only truly balanced budgets of the past half century. And in keeping with that tradition, we continue to promote fiscal responsibility, sound business practices, and prudent investing.
Over the years, we have learned how elusive these goals can be. And by the same token, I recognize the unusual difficulty of the current challenges you face.
However, it is undeniable that the new rescue proposals being made today go beyond the already-extreme efforts announced or undertaken previously, such as the $700 billion bailout package signed into law by President Bush ten days ago, the unprecedented $1 trillion in central bank liquidity injections during the prior week, and additional extreme measures by the U.K., Germany and other leading nations.
It is also undeniable that those efforts have not yet been effective, leading us to wonder if new efforts will be any different. Before implementing them, therefore, I believe it behooves us to consider some ominous trends:
1. Government interventions are backfiring.
Since the credit crisis burst onto the global scene approximately 14 months ago, each new government countermeasure seems to have backfired.
Rather than encouraging investors to make the rational choice of shifting assets to stronger hands, governments have inadvertently done precisely the opposite. They have promoted irrational complacency. They have encouraged imprudent inaction. They may have also prompted investors to shift some assets back to weaker hands.
Repeatedly, the authorities pursued a policy that made individual and institutional investors more confident than the circumstances warranted. This policy, in turn, prompted investors to buy more common shares in insolvent banks, more junk bonds in over-rated corporations, and more derivatives contracts based on unrealistic models — all despite abundant evidence that the banks' balance sheets were continuing to deteriorate.
Earlier, various government measures seeking to reduce the panic — such as coordinated central bank intervention — did buy some time by temporarily reducing investor fears. And during those quieter interludes, policymakers were able to artificially drive down the premiums charged by lenders for higher risk loans.
But this was accomplished despite the deterioration in balance sheets.
In other words, each time governments intervened, the cost charged for risk came down, but the level of risk continued to rise. Instead of bringing stability to the marketplace, the authorities created a dangerous discrepancy between the two — between price and reality.
Result: As soon as the immediate effects of the interventions dissipated, and as soon as symptoms of the true risk levels resurfaced, there were sudden, explosive market adjustments.
Investors seeking to avoid devastating losses dumped their high-risk assets. Other investors, who otherwise might have not been unduly impacted by the turmoil, suffered parallel losses. And the general public, previously less cognizant of the financial turmoil, suffered surging anxiety.
The authorities may have exacerbated the very panic they were seeking to avoid. And now, as the public begins to connect the dots between government actions and market reactions, the quiet time bought with each new intervention has diminished or even vanished.
2. Government actions are too little, too late to stem the debt crisis.
Kindly refer to our white paper submitted to the U.S. Congress on September 25, 2008, titled "Proposed $700 Billion Bailout Is Too Little, Too Late to End the Debt Crisis; Too Much, Too Soon for the U.S. Bond Market."
In it, we detail why the U.S. debt crisis alone was far larger than previously believed. As of the first quarter, it encompassed or affected
1,479 banks and 158 thrifts at risk of failure with $3.2 trillion in assets, or 41 times the bank assets estimated at risk by the FDIC.
$14.8 trillion in residential and commercial mortgages, $20.4 trillion in consumer and corporate debt, plus $2.7 trillion in municipal debts outstanding.
$180.3 trillion in notional value derivatives, of which one single institution — JPMorgan Chase — held $90 trillion, or 49.9% of the total U.S. market share.
$465 billion in credit exposure to derivatives, up 159% from one year earlier.
Today, less than three weeks later, it appears that many of these debts and bets are falling like a house of cards. Moreover, in retrospect, it appears that many of the efforts to support or sustain them may have been futile, wasteful, or both.
3. Government actions are too much, too soon for the debt markets.
In its Fiscal Year 2009 Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) projected the 2009 U.S. federal deficit will rise to $482 billion, a major burden on U.S. debt markets. However, that OMB projection was made before the recent bailout commitments were known or even imagined.
Since then, the expenditures and liabilities announced or proposed by the U.S. government have easily exceeded $1 trillion.
However, for the world's debt markets — the primary source of federal government deficit financing — the expectation of exploding federal deficits is damaging confidence. It may even be one of the factors responsible for the global paralysis of short-term credit markets. And it may also be one of the reasons why, this past Friday, October 10, we witnessed the worst-ever collapse of high-yield corporate bonds.
4. Government bailouts could endanger government credit and credibility.
The credit market contagion has spread in phases:
In the mortgage sector, it was initially confined to subprime mortgages. Then it reached the mid-level Alt-A mortgages. And now it has affected prime mortgages.
In short-term credit markets, it was first restricted to commercial paper issued by weak financial institutions. Next, it spread to the short-term paper of stronger financial institutions. And now it has hurt nonfinancial paper as well.
In bonds, it began with the most speculative junk bonds, then reached middle-tier bonds, and now has impacted most corporate bonds of all stripes.
Each time, frightened investors sought the safety of government paper. And each time, this fear factor drove up government bond prices while driving down their interest rates.
This may be giving U.S. Treasury officials the false impression that they enjoy strong investor demand for government securities and easy access to funds for more handouts to near-bankrupt corporations. But this influx of money may also be obscuring a frightening prospect:
Governments could be the next victims.
To the degree that the authorities pursue the purchase of bad bank assets, or to the extent that they go forward with the injection of government capital into a collapsing banking system, they may become subject to the same contagion of mistrust.
I implore you: Please do everything in your power to help prevent that from happening. If the governments' heretofore stellar credit is sucked into this crisis, it could
make it much more expensive for governments to roll over their maturing debts;
make it difficult to raise the cash needed to maintain government operations; and
ironically, deprive authorities of the last weapon they have to help bring about a subsequent recovery: The credit and credibility of the world's leading governments.
5. Government actions could aggravate, or even cause, the systemic meltdown they are seeking to prevent.
Reason should dictate that governments should do everything possible to liquidate insolvent institutions, quarantine the weakest institutions, fortify the strongest, and insulate the government's own credit from the scourge. Instead, it seems that U.S. and European authorities are doing precisely the opposite. They are engineering
shotgun mergers that sweep bad assets under the carpet of otherwise stronger institutions;
bailouts that create zombie banks and corporations, weakening the system as a whole; and
new, bigger and unaffordable FDIC-type guarantees of bank deposits that further obscure the difference between worthy and unworthy banks.
The long-term, fundamental affect of these actions is widely known: They are corrosive. They cause far more losses and pain in the end.
What's not so widely recognized is that the short-term consequences could be equally catastrophic: By
combining bad assets with good assets,
merging weak banks with strong banks, and
confusing risk with safety,
the authorities are merely making it more difficult for millions of savers and investors to discriminate between each of the above.
The result: Instead of shifting from riskier banks to safer banks, many people are exiting the banking system entirely.
Inadvertently, the authorities could be transforming what should have been a shift within the system to a run on the system.
Instead of a harsh, but ultimately manageable, collapse of the weakest institutions, they could be leading us toward the systemic meltdown you warned about this weekend.
6. Governments are squandering scarce capital that will be needed for a true recovery after any collapse.
No one wants a collapse.
We all abhor the tremendous hardship it will inevitably cause — not just for the few who have the most to lose, but also for the many who have lost hope of anything to gain.
But a financial collapse, no matter how dramatic, is not the end of the world. We have endured many such collapses before and we survived. We can survive this one as well.
Today, it seems the relevant debate is no longer whether or not a financial collapse is preventable. The collapse is already here.
Rather, the main topics worthy of discussion are how big the collapse will be, how long it will last, and what we can do today to maximize the chances of a healthy recovery in the future. Below, I provide my view on each of these topics separately:
The size of the collapse is not within our power to control. We cannot repeal the law of gravity; we cannot stop investors from selling. Nor can we turn back the clock to reverse the financial sins already committed. One way or another, the bad debts have to be expunged. And the events of recent weeks are telling us that a deflationary debt collapse may be the mechanism.
The duration of the decline depends on its speed. To the degree that we let the debt liquidation process happen naturally and manage it wisely, it should be short, fast and behind us soon; to the degree that we stop it from happening and sweep the debts under the rug, it could be long, slow and more tortuous.
It's in the nature of the subsequent recovery that I feel you can have the greatest influence today. If you protect the credit of the financially sound institutions, they can be powerful resources to help bring about a recovery. However, if you prematurely squander our precious resources now, then any subsequent recovery is bound to be weakened and delayed.
I have four recommendations, as follows:
First, cut back the bailout and rescue efforts.
Second, protect the credit and credibility of sovereign government debts.
Third, preserve public resources for (a) emergency assistance to those that are rendered ill or destitute during a secular economic decline, and (b) carefully planned economic stimulus after a secular decline.
Fourth, foster an environment of public trust by guiding consumers to research that can help them better distinguish between low- and high-risk banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions.
I know it will be very difficult. I realize millions of people must make great sacrifices. But with the right guidance and leadership, I am sure we'll be ready to step up to the challenge.
Sincerely,
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.




notary in fremont notary fremont california fremont ca notary notary in fremont ca notary in newark notary newark ca nnotarized mortgage documentsotary public fremont notary public fremont ca notary public in fremont notary public in newark notary public newark notary public union city notary service fremont notary service fremont ca notary service in fremont notary service in fremont ca notary services fremont notary services fremont ca notary services in fremont notary union city ca Notaries in Fremont


Optimists: House prices expected to fall until 2009 (articles.moneycentral.msn.com)Paulson Credit Push Earns Jeers From Free-Marketers (bloomberg.com)Disaster capitalism, the new Manifest Destiny (eyeonmiami.blogspot.com)SIV Bailout Plan: Don't Ask, Don't Sell (seekingalpha.com)Text of Paulson's Remarks on Housing (blogs.wsj.com)As Defaults Rise, Washington Worries (nytimes.com)Mortgage Securities Bailout Fund: A Bribe? (seekingalpha.com)Banks May Pool Billions to Avert Securities Sell-Off (nytimes.com)Boom Boom Tuesday (market-ticker.denninger.net)Wells Fargo, Regions Financial, KeyCorp Profits Miss (bloomberg.com)Wells Fargo Hit by Mortgage Woes (thestreet.com)Foreigners Sold Record $69.3 Billion in U.S. Assets (bloomberg.com)German bank hit by subprime crisis slashes results, directors leave (afp.google.com)Builder D.R. Horton Orders Fall (cnbc.com)D.R. Horton Orders Fall to Lowest in Almost Six Years (bloomberg.com)Housebuilder Outlook Falls to Record Low (biz.yahoo.com)8 Areas in the U.S. Most Unaffordable in World (efinancedirectory.com)Blame the Downturn on Homebuilders and Banks (doctorhousingbubble.com)Southern California house sales plunge 30 pct in Sept (reuters.com)2005 San Diegeo Sales (sandicor.com)2007 San Diego Sales (sandicor.com)
Bloomberg.com
market-ticker.denninger.net
eyeonmiami.blogspot.com
conotary.com

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Black October Getting Blacker

Black October Getting Blacker by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

Three weeks ago, on September 25, I sent you an email with the subject "Black October Dead Ahead."
In it, Mike Larson wrote: "October is the month that brought us the Crash of '29 and the Crash of '87 — single-day declines in the Dow that would be the equivalent to 1,400 and 2,500 points in today's market. And next Wednesday, a new killer Black October begins."
Then, just in case you missed that e-mail, we sent you a similar warning three times in Money and Markets and posted it prominently to our Website.
We implored you to get out of the market, and we recommended inverse investments that naturally explode in value when stocks crash.
Now, just twelve days into the month of October ...
We've seen the single worst week in the history of the Dow.
We have seen two of the three greatest one-day crashes in stock market history.
More than $8 trillion of stock market wealth has evaporated (since January).
And there's no end in sight.
With credit markets frozen and the global economy coming unglued, it's now very obvious that this is a secular bear market. And, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal,
"Secular bear markets can last for 14 years or longer, like the one from 1968 to 1982. Typically, such bear markets are accompanied by repeated economic disappointments, as excesses that developed during long periods of growth are unwound. That was true during the 1970s, and it seems to be the case now, although the underlying economic issues are different."
We hope they're wrong. We'd actually prefer to see the bear market strike more swiftly and end more swiftly. But in either scenario, unless you're absolutely fully prepared for what's to come, you need start taking immediate protective action — ideally as soon as Monday morning!
For urgent instructions, see the 1-hour video recording of the emergency Q&A Conference we just held Friday. It's available for immediate viewing right now. Just turn up your computer speakers and click here.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.gliq.com/cgi-bin/click?weiss_mam+111401-2+SUM1114SPLIT1+rob@contempowest.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Christina Kern, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.gliq.com/cgi-bin/click?weiss_mam+111401-2+SUM1114SPLIT1+rob@contempowest.com

notary in fremont notary fremont california fremont ca notary notary in fremont ca notary in newark notary newark ca nnotarized mortgage documentsotary public fremont notary public fremont ca notary public in fremont notary public in newark notary public newark notary public union city notary service fremont notary service fremont ca notary service in fremont notary service in fremont ca notary services fremont notary services fremont ca notary services in fremont notary union city ca Notaries in Fremont


Optimists: House prices expected to fall until 2009 (articles.moneycentral.msn.com)Paulson Credit Push Earns Jeers From Free-Marketers (bloomberg.com)Disaster capitalism, the new Manifest Destiny (eyeonmiami.blogspot.com)SIV Bailout Plan: Don't Ask, Don't Sell (seekingalpha.com)Text of Paulson's Remarks on Housing (blogs.wsj.com)As Defaults Rise, Washington Worries (nytimes.com)Mortgage Securities Bailout Fund: A Bribe? (seekingalpha.com)Banks May Pool Billions to Avert Securities Sell-Off (nytimes.com)Boom Boom Tuesday (market-ticker.denninger.net)Wells Fargo, Regions Financial, KeyCorp Profits Miss (bloomberg.com)Wells Fargo Hit by Mortgage Woes (thestreet.com)Foreigners Sold Record $69.3 Billion in U.S. Assets (bloomberg.com)German bank hit by subprime crisis slashes results, directors leave (afp.google.com)Builder D.R. Horton Orders Fall (cnbc.com)D.R. Horton Orders Fall to Lowest in Almost Six Years (bloomberg.com)Housebuilder Outlook Falls to Record Low (biz.yahoo.com)8 Areas in the U.S. Most Unaffordable in World (efinancedirectory.com)Blame the Downturn on Homebuilders and Banks (doctorhousingbubble.com)Southern California house sales plunge 30 pct in Sept (reuters.com)2005 San Diegeo Sales (sandicor.com)2007 San Diego Sales (sandicor.com)
Bloomberg.com
market-ticker.denninger.net
eyeonmiami.blogspot.com

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Buffet and the Bear

Buffet and the Bear by Nilus Mattive
I listen to Warren Buffett's words carefully. Not because I'm a hero worshipper, but because the Oracle of Omaha knows the investment world inside and out. His conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, has returned a compound annual gain of 27.1% over the last 42 years (through the end of 2007). And individually, he is the richest man in the world.
So, what has Buffett been saying lately? Here are some of his comments made last week ...
"In my adult lifetime, I don't think I've ever seen people as fearful economically as they are now."
"The recession is going to get worse. I don't want to hold out false hopes that — by some magic bullet — that things will turn around in a couple months."
"This really is an economic Pearl Harbor. That sounds melodramatic, but I've never used that phrase before. And this really is one."
Discouraging stuff, to say the least. And unfortunately, I agree with all of it.
Internal Sponsorship
Shocking CNN poll: Six in Ten Americans SayA DEPRESSION is Coming!
THIS FRIDAY: Urgent online Q&A session to help you protect ...
Your income and financial security ...
Your savings, checking and brokerage accounts and your money market funds ...
Your life, health and property insurance policies and annuities ....
Every kind of money you have!
Click here for more information ...

People are panicking more than I have ever seen. The minute I got back from my trip to Asia, I felt it. The country's mood had changed. What were once distant possibilities had become immediate dangers.
Everyday Americans, not necessarily even investors, were angry and worried about the pending bailout. My mother asked whether she should move her retirement account to another institution. And this past weekend, while visiting my wife's family and friends, I was questioned on the markets by nearly everyone I encountered.
Warren Buffett is worried about the current environment, but he's also buying despite his fear.
There is no question that the worry is well founded. Like Buffett, I have been saying for quite some time that even if our country is not in an official recession, it sure feels like one. Falling investment values, rising prices for daily necessities, money markets freezing out investors ... these are serious threats to our nation's wealth and security.
And I am now certain that we will ultimately see two consecutive quarters of GDP growth before all is said and done, too. That will make it official for the economists, and likely means more downside for stocks in the short term.
However, There Is Also Wisdom in Another Buffett Saying: That We Should Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful ...
This is easier said than done, of course. But some investors — even as they openly worry about our country's future — are making bullish bets on the U.S.
Buffett is a prime example. While he is talking about the sad state of affairs, he is ACTING on the belief that things will improve.
I have pointed out some of his earlier moves in 2008, but here's a quick refresher:
His investment firm, Berkshire Hathaway, bought a 60% stake in Marmon Holdings, an industrial group that makes everything from railroad tank cars to wires and cables. The firm plans on acquiring the rest of Marmon over the next several years.
Berkshire bought 751,400 shares of U.S. railroad company Burlington Northern, boosting its overall stake to 17.6%.
Buffett launched a new business unit that will insure bonds.
And he is helping finance two mergers involving companies I recommended to Dividend Superstars subscribers — Wrigley and Rohm & Haas.
Internal Sponsorship
FINANCIAL CRISIS GETS WORSE!GOLD CAN BE YOUR SAFE HAVEN!
Wall Street cratered on Friday, and the parade of pain is just getting started. Today, global markets in Asia and Europe sold off hard, and Wall Street faces more troubles dead ahead. But do you want to know what's looking good today? Gold!
Prices are being supported by strong investment demand for gold coins and bars, traders say, as well as money pouring into bullion-backed exchange traded funds.
Click here for more information ...

Now, just last week, as he made the negative comments I cited above, Buffett committed $3 billion to General Electric and $5 billion to Goldman Sachs in exchange for preferred shares in the two companies.
Yes, he negotiated far better deals for Berkshire than you or I would get. But Buffett's moves are bullish nonetheless.
And never forget that Buffett has also made billions of bullish bets using options on not just the S&P 500, but also three other unnamed foreign stock market indexes.
While the details are scant, Buffett has said all of these bets expire between 2019 and 2027 and were struck at the market. In other words, he believes stocks — both in the U.S. and in other foreign markets — will be higher 10 years from now than they are today.
Again, I agree with him. History is certainly on our side.
Consider What Has Happened in Past Bear and Bull Markets ...
This latest bear market officially began on July 9, when the S&P 500 index closed 20.5% lower than its high made on October 9, 2007.
How low can stocks go based on history?
The average bear market in the S&P 500 has seen an average loss of 34.1% over 20 months. That would take us to 1031.49, approximately where the index sits today.
It's worth noting that, technically speaking, the "500" does have a lot of support in the low 1000-range, too. However, the 20-month average would take us out to the summer of 2009.
The last bear market — which lasted from March 2000 to October 2002 — took the entire "500" down 49.1% over about 30 months. If we apply that loss to this cycle's current high point, we arrive at an S&P 500 bottom of 796.66 somewhere around March, 2010. Yikes!
Worst case, historically speaking? The fiercest bear occurred back in 1937-1942, with the index losing 60% of its value over 62 months. Today, that would mean an S&P 500 of 626.1 in the beginning of 2013.
This table breaks out each historical bear market for you ...
Bear Markets
START
END
MONTHS
CHANGE
03/05/33
04/28/38
62
-60.0%
05/28/42
06/13/45
37
-29.6%
08/01/52
10/21/53
15
-21.5%
12/11/57
06/26/58
6
-28.0%
02/08/62
10/06/62
8
-22.2%
11/28/64
05/25/66
18
-36.1%
01/10/69
10/02/70
21
-48.2%
11/27/76
08/11/78
20
-27.1%
08/24/83
12/03/83
3
-33.5%
07/15/86
10/10/86
3
-19.9%
03/23/96
10/08/98
31
-49.1%
AVERAGE
20
-34.1%
Source: S&P Index Services
As you can see by these numbers, there could be plenty more pain ahead. But I want to come back to the greed part ... the reason to buy when everyone else is fearful.
I'm talking about what has happened during the average bull market: A whopping 164% return over 57 months!
Take a look at this table for a complete breakdown of past bull markets. As you can see, even the last bull market was good for a 101% gain over five years ...
S&P Bull Markets
START
END
MONTHS
CHANGE
05/31/28
03/05/33
57
325%
04/28/38
05/28/42
49
158%
06/13/45
08/01/52
86
266%
10/21/53
12/11/57
50
86%
06/26/58
02/08/62
43
80%
10/06/62
11/28/64
26
48%
05/25/66
01/10/69
32
74%
10/02/70
11/27/76
74
126%
08/11/78
08/24/83
60
229%
12/03/83
07/15/86
31
65%
10/10/86
03/23/96
113
417%
10/08/98
10/08/03
60
101%

57
164%
Source: S&P Index Services
The historical lesson is clear: Bears can be absolutely brutal, but the ensuing bull runs have always paid off handsomely for patient investors.
Am I saying that right now is the absolute bottom or the time to buy with both hands? No.
But I do think we should all keep the market's history in mind as we watch the daily ticker tape ...
We should pay close attention to what legendary investors like Warren Buffett are not only saying, but DOING ...
And by using strategies like dollar-cost averaging, dividend reinvestment, and hedging with inverse ETFs, we should be setting ourselves up for long-term gains with a strong element of short-term protection.
Best wishes,
Nilus
P.S. I should also note that dividend stocks continue to hold up significantly better than shares that don't pay dividends. Payers in the S&P 500 outperformed non-dividend stocks in September ... year-to-date ... and over the last 12 months!
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Christina Kern, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

Rob Schmidt Mobile Notary Service. We Service these cities Alameda, Alamo, Alviso, Antioch, Atherton, Bay Point, Belmont, Berkeley, Brentwood, Burlingame, Campbell, Clayton, Colma, Crocket, Concord, Cupertino, Castro Valley, Daly City, Danville, Discovery Bay, Dublin, East Palo Alto, El Sobrante, Emeryville, Fremont, Foster City, Hayward, Hercules, Kensington, Lafayette, Livermore, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos, Martinez, Millbrae, Milpitas, Moraga, Mountain View, Newark, Oakland, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Pinole Pacheco, Pittsburg, Pleasanton, Redwood City, Richmond, Rodeo, Saratoga, San Bruno, San Carlos, San Jose, San Leandro, San Lorenzo, San Mateo, San Pablo, San Ramon, Santa Clara, So. San Francisco, Sunnyvale, Union City, Walnut Creek, Woodside . And even San Francisco, but it's gonna cost you to send me there.... traffic, no parking , crowds, one way streets. See I'd rather not go to the City.